A macroeconomic model that is built from the real economy.
Most macroeconomic models work top-down, imposing aggregate relationships that smooth over the firm-level and household-level dynamics driving real outcomes. Macrocosm’s model works bottom-up: GDP, inflation, employment, and labor market transitions emerge from simulated agent behavior to capture trends, even when the economy is pushed out of equilibrium.
Key capabilities
[ 01 — 04 ]Forecast key macro indicators from behavioral first principles
Forecast GDP, inflation, employment, and financial stability using a bottom-up simulation of firm and household behavior rather than statistical extrapolation from historical patterns.
Model nonlinear responses to shocks
Capture tipping points, amplification effects, and recovery paths other models miss. This is particularly relevant for scenarios with little historical precedent.
Model occupational mobility and labor market transitions
Simulate how workers move between occupations given their skills, proximity, geographic constraints, and labor market structure. Surface which groups are least able to adapt.
Connect macro outcomes to sectoral and labor dynamics
Ground macroeconomic forecasts in the sectoral and firm-level dynamics that produce them by linking output, employment, and price forecasts to the industries, balance sheet conditions, and workforce transitions that drive aggregate outcomes.
Who uses it
See the economy as it is
Standard DSGE and VAR models assume equilibrium and smooth adjustment. Macrocosm's behavioral simulation captures the heterogeneous firm and household dynamics that central banks increasingly recognise as drivers of inflation, financial stability, and recovery trajectories. Stress-test policy interventions in a model that doesn't assume the answer.
Forecast what standard models miss
When economies face novel shocks, extrapolation fails. Macrocosm's bottom-up simulation gives asset managers a clearer view of where GDP, inflation, and employment are heading (and why), even for shocks like an accelerated energy transition, a breakdown in global trade, or a financial crisis.
Design policies that work for people
Understand how workforces shift across occupations and regions during periods of structural change. Design retraining programs, regional investment, and social protection policy with a model that reflects real mobility constraints.
Want to learn more?
Contact us to learn how our macroeconomic and labor transition simulator can support your work.
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