Quantify the financial impact of supply shocks before they hit.
Most risk models treat supply chain disruptions as single shocks in isolation. Macrocosm simulates shocks as cascading ripples through the supply network — tracking how disruptions propagate week by week so you can see not just what gets disrupted, but when, by how much, and why.
Key capabilities
[ 01 — 04 ]Model a global shock
Feed in a shock — an earthquake, a pandemic, a tariff — and see how the impact travels along the supply chain week by week, from the point of disruption outward.
Quantify financial impact
Get output loss estimates at firm, sector, country, or regional granularity. This includes the second- and third-order effects that equilibrium models are structurally unable to see, calibrated against real disruption events and validated on observed data.
Discover hidden exposure
Find vulnerable firms and sectors sitting in the cascade path. The firms hit hardest by a shock are often several links removed from it. We determine exposure from network position rather than proximity.
Measure timing and recovery
Anticipate impacts before they strike. The model runs at weekly granularity to show when the cascade reaches each sector, when losses peak, and how long the recovery tail extends.
“Supply chains are vital to everything we do, yet we know very little about them. Having better maps of supply chains and a better understanding of how they are disrupted and how to recover would make our economy much stabler.”
Case Study: Strait of Hormuz
On February 28, 2026, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Within days, 21% of the world’s petroleum supply had vanished from world markets. What happened next proved to be a stress test for the entire global economy. We ran our model across 80 countries, 49 sectors, week by week, to trace exactly how the shock would impact global production across the world.
The demo below shows one scenario — a 15-week closure — and the expected production losses by country and sector.
While most economic models start with a shock and work backward from the damage, we do the opposite. We build the economy from the ground up and then let the shock play out through those real connections. That’s what lets us go beyond aggregate estimates to show exactly where disruption travels, when it arrives, and why.
Why does this matter? We’re able to capture details that standard economic models miss entirely. For instance, we model physical material flows rather than just price signals. This allows us to see that a 15-week conflict is 2.4 times more damaging than an 8-week one — not proportionally worse, but dramatically so. We can also see sector-level detail through explainable causal pathways: that electronics in Taiwan and auto manufacturing in Vietnam face double-digit output losses despite having no direct Gulf energy exposure. And we show the sequence of events and timing of recovery to enable timely intervention.
If you’re responsible for understanding risk — whether you’re underwriting it, investing across it, or managing supply chains through it — this is the kind of clarity that changes how you act. We’d love to show you what it looks like for your specific exposures. Request a demo →
Want to go deeper? Download our white paper.
Who uses it
All companies have exposure to supply chain risk, some more than others. Our offering is especially beneficial for large corporations with global supply chains, insurers and financial institutions, and policy makers seeking better forecasts for risk management and planning.
Insurers
See the losses that don't show up until claims arrive. Macrocosm maps supplier network exposure at firm, sector, and portfolio level for underwriting, accumulation, stress testing, and regulatory reporting. Applicable across primary carriers, reinsurers, and Lloyd's syndicates.
Asset managers
Stress-test portfolio exposure. Identify which holdings sit in the cascade path of a given shock prior to disruption. Quantify exposure by sector, geography, and counterparty before it appears in earnings.
Policymakers
Model real-economy impact by understanding transmission mechanisms and recovery timelines for geopolitical scenarios, trade disruptions, and infrastructure failures. Inform strategic reserve policy, trade diversification, and crisis response.
Ready to see it in action?
We help companies and institutions build resilient supply chains. Let’s build a better future together.
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